Road Atb
Don’t Put All Your Financial Eggs In One Basket
Businesses see Calgary Climbing out of Recession
http://iwantfinancialpeace.com/
It may not feel like the heady days of 2007, but Calgary is set to take back its spot as the nation’s leader in economic growth.
That’s according to a Conference Board of Canada report Wednesday which predicts that, after being battered and beaten in 2009, Calgary’s economy will be the country’s growth leader from 2011 to 2014.
Ron Quigley, founder and president of Gunnar Manufacturing Inc. in Calgary, said he didn’t need an economic report to tell him the city had turned the corner after 2009′s recession.
“I see very positive things as we move forward,” he said. “This year has been dramatically better than, say, last year. . . . I think with the rebalancing of the royalties in Alberta, that’s helped an awful lot.”
Natural resources remain an ace up the province’s sleeve, Quigley said.
“Let’s face it, we’ve been blessed in this province with energy and agriculture and tourism, mining — just about everything.”
The conference board said Calgary suffered last year, with the effects of the global financial crisis resulting in real gross domestic product declining 4.5 per cent.
The board said Calgary’s economy will rebound this year with 3.5 per cent growth, then average 4.2 per cent growth each year from 2011 to 2014.
“For this year, like a lot of other cities in the country, Calgary had a great start to the year. A great ending to 2009, a great start to 2010,” said Greg Sutherland, senior economist with the board.
“However, we are seeing some slowdown recently,” Sutherland said. “Housing has kind of slowed a bit. Retail activity has slowed a bit. The second half of the year is looking more moderate than the first half.”
Sutherland said demographics play a big role in the GDP calculation. For Calgary, population growth is forecast for 2.5 per cent this year.
“And population growth has always been strong in Calgary, so that really boosts the potential GDP. In Calgary, if you look at its history, at least recent history, it’s always had a larger average GDP growth than most other cities,” he said.
In 2011, economic output in Calgary is expected to grow by 3.8 per cent. The city’s GDP is then expected to rise 4.4 per cent in 2012, 4.3 per cent in 2013 and 4.2 per cent in 2014.
The conference board said the city’s recovery is being fuelled by rebounds in manufacturing, construction and retail trade, along with continued growth in health care, education and public administration.
It said housing starts shot out of the gate in 2010 and are projected to rise by 45.7 per cent this year.
David Hooge, president and general manager of Stepper Custom Homes Inc. and Calgary region president of the Canadian Home Builders Association, said he agrees Calgary will be one of several cities to experience growth in housing starts.
“As we move into fall, we expect to move past the vacuum created by bringing sales forward in late spring because of mortgage qualifying rules changing and concern of interest rate increases,” he said. “And with a renewed strength in energy-related activity as a result of improvements to the province’s royalty regime, we expect the rebound in oil and gas drilling to continue.”
For the province as a whole, the board forecast GDP growth of 3.6 per cent this year, 3.5 per cent in 2011, 4.5 per cent in 2012, 3.9 per cent in 2013, and 3.3 per cent in 2014.
Nationally, Canadian GDP growth was forecast for 3.6 per cent this year, 2.9 per cent in 2011, 3.2 per cent in 2012, 3.1 per cent in 2013 and 2.6 per cent in 2014.
The board said the recession may be over in Alberta, but the road to recovery has been slow.
Oil-related investment will result in incremental production growth, boosting output in the mining and manufacturing industries. Also, the construction sector has shown promising signs this year.
Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary, said Alberta’s economic growth is moving in the right direction.
“There is definitely a rebound, but it’s important because we’re coming off a really, really weak year. In fact, 2008 and 2009 were contracting years in Alberta and in Calgary,” he said. “So to have 3.5 per cent this year or 2011 sounds good, but it’s only getting us back to the level of growth we saw in 2007.”
“It’s still going to feel a little subpar even with growth rates of 3.5 and four per cent. And until we’ve had those growth rates for a few years, then it might start to feel like things are actually ahead of where we were pre-recession.”
How the province is faring economically will be further examined today, as Calgary Economic Development and TD Bank Financial Group hold their annual economic outlook event in the city featuring Craig Alexander, senior vice-president and chief economist for TD, and Mario Lefebvre, director of the Centre for Municipal Studies at the Conference Board of Canada.
http://iwantfinancialpeace.com/
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